Oct 05, 2008
Strong Odds, No Guarantees, and One Ugly Spectre
Is Obama's current lead with four weeks to go a guarantee? Not according to past results. Since 1936, the only lead this strong at this time that has been lost was... Gore v. Bush in 2000.
Bryan Schaffner: 50%, 8% and October: Some Historical Context, at Pollster.com.