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Sep 06, 2008

Delegate Counting

I'm not a huge fan of our weird way of electing presidents by delegate counts.  But that's the way it is, and with McCain and Obama essentially tied in the popular vote these days, I'm kind of relieved.  Why?  Because Obama still leads in the electoral predictions.  (Still, I appreciate/worry-over Barry R's recent comment, "The election remains Obama's to lose. If he keeps running his campaign out of the Dukakis playbook, he may just do that.")

So where to get the intel and the coverage?  Various places, including the New York Times, RealClearPolitics.com and Pollster.com.

Here's some electoral poll commentary from today's SFGate.com, "McCain, Obama in dead heat, poll says" (oddly titled, seeing how they spend significant time on the electoral college non-dead-heat):

Electoral College is key

RealClearPolitics.com, for example, has state polls giving Obama 238 electoral votes and McCain 174, with 10 states with 126 electoral votes listed as tossups. Pollster.com, which also aggregates state polls, gives Obama 260 electoral votes, just 10 short of the 270 he needs to become president.

"It's difficult to say the race is really tied," said Schnur. "If McCain and his advisers thought he was in the driver's seat, they wouldn't have made the type of gamble selecting Sarah Palin (as the vice presidential nominee) represented."


While there are still a few national events ahead - most importantly three presidential debates - both campaigns will concentrate their efforts on a handful of states that can flip the Electoral College numbers on election day.

"Now McCain and Obama are going to spend the final two months fighting for a relatively small number of white, working-class voters," Schnur said. "Most of the action is going to be in states where you can see a Big-10 football game, places like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota."

--- p.s. look at the maps and oh no, maybe Florida as the decider again.

11:00 PM in News | Permalink


Four years ago, I obsessively followed electoral-vote.com everyday. I just checked it for the first time now. I feel a strong sense of relief. Obama 301 - McCain 224.

At the end of the day, there aren't enough people living in the "small towns" to give the GOP any sudden pick-ups in the swing states. Iowa, a place I'd figure has a lot of small towns, is loving Obama. And Obama's winning in North Dakota. He doesn't even need Ohio. McCain, as things stand now, would need to flip TWO of the Big-10 states in addition to Ohio. Not saying it can't happen. But I've been getting pessimistic since the unleashing of the self-described pit-bull-with-lipstick. The math for McCain just doesn't look so good, though.

Posted by: Toastie | Sep 7, 2008 1:55:37 AM

To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

Posted by: susan | Sep 8, 2008 1:01:19 PM

It's great to hear this news about electoral votes favoring Obama. But that's no excuse for slacking. Folks them them some Sarah Palin. And here, all along, I thought beauty pageant contestants favored world peace.

Posted by: Elrond Hubbard | Sep 12, 2008 10:49:20 AM